The Elusive Quest for Growth pmlz 2025 pdf 下载 kindle mobi docx 百度云

Since the end of World War II, economists have tried to figure out how poor countries in the tropics could attain standards of living approaching those of countries in Europe and North America. Attempted remedies have included providing foreign aid, investing in machines, fostering education, controlling population growth, and making aid loans as well as forgiving those loans on condition of reforms. None of these solutions has delivered as promised. The problem is not the failure of economics, William Easterly argues, but the failure to apply economic principles to practical policy work.

In this book Easterly shows how these solutions all violate the basic principle of economics, that people--private individuals and businesses, government officials, even aid donors--respond to incentives. Easterly first discusses the importance of growth. He then analyzes the development solutions that have failed. Finally, he suggests alternative approaches to the problem. Written in an accessible, at times irreverent, style, Easterly’s book combines modern growth theory with anecdotes from his fieldwork for the World Bank.

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教育对经济增长的影响还要取决于其他投资状况。只有与高技术设备、先进技术和其他具有增长激励的投资结合起来，教育才会对生产起到推动作用。如果没有增长激励，就不会有高技术设备和先进技术对教育提供补充。教育虽然可以产生技术工人，但不能创造对技术工人的需求。教育实际上是被浪费了，就好像对一个出租车司机进行高等教育一样；或者高素质的人才移民到发达国家，因为在那里他们发现自己的知识有用武之地。

的确，知识的传授本身会引发先进设备投资和先进技术的采用，但是如果政府政策破坏了这一增长激励，将会大大抵消进行其他投资的激励。

初始教育水平与随后经济增长之的因果关系可能被颠倒了。如果预期未来经济高速增长，技术工资快速而不是停滞不前，那么现期教育投资的收益率将很高，投资教育将是一件有利可图的事情。初始教育与随后经济增长之间的相关性是由于经济增长导教育水平提高而非相反。

RMSM的增长模块实际上就是哈德一多马模型：GDP的増长率与去年的投资GDP保持一定比例。要取得高济增长，就需要官方援助和私人投资来弥补国内储蓄与必需投资之间的缺口。

这实际上就是边际收益递减：在一种原料保持不变的情况下，增加另一种原料并不能使我的烤薄饼产量取得持续增长。当一种要素（面粉）不变时另一种要素（牛奶）的增加就会产生递减收益。牛奶的收益的确是递减的。在做烤薄饼的过程中，第一杯牛奶的作用的确很大，没有它，我只能得到干面粉，而有了它，我至少能做出一张较厚的烤饼。但是当我向两杯面粉中加人三杯牛奶之后，再加一杯牛奶就糟糕了。

在工人数量给定的情况下，我们可以通过提高人均机器占有量来增加产量。如果一开始没有机器的话，这种做法没有问题，増加一台机器将会大大提高产出。但是，当我们已经拥有大量机器的时候，再增加一台机器对产出的贡献就非常小了。

援助者也面临一个错误的激励。许多援助机构都是由一个或多个国家的特定部门组成。这个部门的预算是由它发放的援助金额决定的。如果该部门不发放援助贷款，第二年分配给它的预算就会减少。而更多的贷款往往意味着更好的声誉和更多的政绩，因此即使贷款条件难以满足，负责贷款援助的部门也面临发放贷款的激励。

这个故事听起来令人沮丧，但也不是没有希望。我们现在已经有统计上的证据支持理论，来解释为什么药方失灵以及基于激励的政策如何发生作用。激励可以改变国家，促使其走向繁荣之路。但说起来容易做起来难，因为正确的激励本身并不容易获得。我们将会发现援助者、政府和民众之间的激励错综复杂，构成一个难以解开的网络。

书籍介绍

Since the end of World War II, economists have tried to figure out how poor countries in the tropics could attain standards of living approaching those of countries in Europe and North America. Attempted remedies have included providing foreign aid, investing in machines, fostering education, controlling population growth, and making aid loans as well as forgiving those loans on condition of reforms. None of these solutions has delivered as promised. The problem is not the failure of economics, William Easterly argues, but the failure to apply economic principles to practical policy work.

In this book Easterly shows how these solutions all violate the basic principle of economics, that people--private individuals and businesses, government officials, even aid donors--respond to incentives. Easterly first discusses the importance of growth. He then analyzes the development solutions that have failed. Finally, he suggests alternative approaches to the problem. Written in an accessible, at times irreverent, style, Easterly’s book combines modern growth theory with anecdotes from his fieldwork for the World Bank.